by Jerry Silberman
Wind and solar electric power? Great! If they’re replacing fossil fuel generation.
The Urban Sustainability Forum on Thursday, March 20th featured very interesting persentations on the rapidly growing installation of both wind and solar electric generation capacity in Pennsylvania, and highlighted the contribution of Iberdrola and SunTechnics, both European based multinationals to the local economy. A presentation on PJM, the amazing network which coordinates the generation and delivery of power in most of the northeast United States, about how the redistribution of consumption around the clock can affect pricing and the need for generating capacity rounded out the presentation.
Wind and solar together (mostly wind) are 1% of our generating capacity. Generating capacity in the US continues to grow, meaning that wind and solar are not replacing fossil fuel but adding to it. So, the most important question we face– how do we dramatically reduce our carbon footprint– was not addressed in this forum.
And that’s the one that has me worried, since our current level of greenhouse gas generation has already started the planet into a global warming cycle which will have South Jersey residents in houseboats, South Philadelphia under water and the rest of us on the beach in a couple of generations. Stabilizing greenhouse gases below the current level, not at or above, is necessary to dodge this bullet, according to current science, as opposed to IPCC politically acceptable dilutions.
Wind power has been demonstrated to have a total Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI) rate of 10-20 to 1, which compares reasonably with oil production in the country at present (down from 100 to 1 in the days of the gushers), so it has a real potential to keep the lights on (I have not studied the EROEI and resource issues on solar electric, so I can’t comment; it’s probably not as good). But the initial investment will be huge, and conversion time measured, at best, in a few decades. This, of course, only works if we also abandon the fantasy of converting 200 millino cars to electricity. Only if we reduce total electricity consumption, and remove fossil capacity as fast or faster than we add wind can it really help slow the global warming juggernaut.
So the real answer to getting to zero greenhouse gases still depends much more on conservation, and reduction of electricity. The moderator commented that running the dishwasher at a different time can help. From my point of view that action helps only to maintain a state of denial, not develop a sustainable culture. Getting rid of the dishwashers, exchanging the electric dryers for clothelines, ditching the TV’s, automatic icemakers and a thousand other electricity hogs is what we need to do if we are ready to be serious about a sustainable culture in something close to our current climate.
2008-03-25 09:20:06
